Estimation of Large River Design Floods Using the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) Method

Slobodan Kolaković, Vladimir Mandić (), Milan Stojković, Goran Jeftenić, Danilo Stipić and Srđan Kolaković
Additional contact information
Slobodan Kolaković: Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Vladimir Mandić: Faculty of Civil and Mechanical Engineering in Kraljevo, University of Kragujevac, 36000 Kraljevo, Serbia
Milan Stojković: The Institute for Artificial Intelligence Research and Development of Serbia, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Goran Jeftenić: Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Danilo Stipić: Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Srđan Kolaković: Faculty of Technical Science, Department for Civil Engineering, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 6, 1-14

Abstract: This research analyzes the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method for designed flood estimation needed to plan river levees, spillways and water facilities. In this study, a one-parameter exponential probability distribution has been modified by including the coefficient of λ, which represents an average number of floods and enables return period calculation within the specified period of time. The study also compares results using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution of maximum annual flows and a standard exponential distribution of the selected peaks over the threshold level. The aforementioned approach represents the standard mathematical tools for river flood design, while the proposed modification of the exponential distribution highlights the estimation of flood quantiles with longer return periods (e.g., 100, 1000 and 10,000 years). Moreover, the sensitivity analysis of the threshold selection is proposed to assist in the flood design flow estimation alongside the proposed modification of the exponential probability distribution. The study was carried out at the Danube River, and the Novi Sad hydrological station (Republic of Serbia) was used for the long-term recorded period from 1876 to 2015. The results suggest that the POT method derives more reliable estimates of design floods than the traditional statistical tools for flood estimation. The results suggest the theoretical values of the water level of the 10,000 years return period is equal to 867 cm, while the Log-Pearson Type III distribution of annual maximum flows underestimated this value for 14 cm.

Keywords: flooding; design flood; flood frequency analyses; annual maximum series method; peaks-over-threshold method; modified one-parameter exponential distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5573/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/6/5573/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:5573-:d:1104110

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().