Third Time’s a Charm? Assessing the Impact of the Third Phase of the EU ETS on CO 2 Emissions and Performance

Massimo Bordignon and Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti ()
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Massimo Bordignon: Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Via Necchi 5, 20123 Milan, Italy
Duccio Gamannossi degl’Innocenti: Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Via Necchi 5, 20123 Milan, Italy

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-21

Abstract: The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is the largest cap-and-trade scheme for CO 2 emissions globally. This study evaluates the impact on CO 2 -equivalents emission of the increased stringency of Phase 3, which marked a significant shift from the previous phases of the EU ETS and significantly reduced the number of emissions permits (EU Allowances—EUA) freely allocated. Our analysis reveals that the increase of purchased EUA had a statistically significant, substantial impact on emissions reduction from Phase 2 to Phase 3, with a decrease in emissions of approximately half a ton for each additional allowance bought. Our (conservative) estimate of the total reduction in emission is 422 MtCO 2 -eq, 22.5% of the average yearly EU ETS emissions or 4.3–3.0% of emissions in Phases 2 and 3, respectively. Under Article 10c of the ETS directive, lower-income Member States have been allowed to continue the free allocation of EUA to electricity-generating installations during Phase 3 to provide more time and resources for modernization. We show that such derogation had a sizeable and significant detrimental impact on the achievement of emission reduction targets, leading to an increase in emissions of about half a ton for each additional allowance bought; a result that highlights the need for increased efforts on support measures (e.g., the Modernization Fund). We also investigate the impact of the EU ETS on output, capital productivity, and labour productivity. Our analysis indicates that the performances were not negatively impacted by the tightening in regulation that occurred between Phases 2 and 3. We also find no evidence that the derogation status impacted performances, which further ameliorates the concerns about the potential intra-EU competitive distortions induced by the regulation. Our results cast a favourable light on the reduction of the free allocation of EUA and the tightening of the regulation implemented in Phase 4 of the EU ETS.

Keywords: EU Emissions Trading System (ETS); carbon emissions; greenhouse gases (GHG); climate policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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