Decomposition and Scenario Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China

An Cheng, Xinru Han and Guogang Jiang ()
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An Cheng: Wu Jinglian School of Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China
Xinru Han: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Guogang Jiang: Wu Jinglian School of Economics, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213159, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: It is crucial for China to take the characteristics and development stage of every province in the region into account in order to achieve the “dual carbon” development goal. Using data collected from 2000 to 2019, this study identifies the factors that influence carbon emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and establishes a revised stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to investigate the effects of four key factors on carbon emissions in Jiangsu province: population size, economic output, energy intensity, and energy structure. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) energy intensity contributes to a slowed rate of carbon emission production in Jiangsu, whereas population size, economic output, and energy structure contribute to a pulling effect; (2) under different scenarios, Jiangsu’s carbon dioxide emissions peak at different times and reach different values; and (3) two low-carbon scenarios are more in line with the current development situation and future policy orientation of Jiangsu Province and are therefore better choices. Our policy recommendations are as follows: (1) the development of economic and social activities should be coordinated and greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced; (2) the province’s energy structure should be transformed and upgraded by taking advantage of the “dual carbon” development model; and (3) regionally-differentiated carbon emission reduction policies should be developed.

Keywords: CO 2 emissions; energy intensity; energy structure; LMDI method; STIRPAT model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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