Flood Inundation and Streamflow Changes in the Kabul River Basin under Climate Change

Sohaib Baig () and Shabeh ul Hasson
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Sohaib Baig: Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, Trento University, 38122 Trento, Italy
Shabeh ul Hasson: HAREME Lab, Institute of Geography, CEN, University of Hamburg, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: The Kabul basin yields around 16% of the total annual water availability in Pakistan. Changing climate will alter the precipitation regime in terms of intensity and frequency, which will affect the water yield and cause flood hazards. Against this background, this study aims to quantify the impacts of changing climate on the water yield, its timings, and, more importantly, the associated flood hazards in the transboundary Kabul basin. For this, we used a rainfall-runoff inundation (RRI) model coupled with the snow and glacier melt routines and drove it for historical and future climates simulated by the atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) at 20 km spatial resolution. The model simulations reveal that rainfall runoff contributes around 50% of the annual flows, and the rest is contributed by glaciers and snow melts. Annual precipitation is projected to increase by 14% from 535 mm, whereas temperatures will rise by 4.7 °C. In turn, the Kabul River flows will only increase by 4% to 1158 m 3 s −1 from 1117 m 3 s −1 , mainly due to an increase in winter flows. In contrast to a minute increase in the mean river flows, the maximum flood inundation area is projected to increase by 37%, whereas its depth will rise between 5 and 20 cm.

Keywords: Kabul river; Chitral river; floods; climate change; river flows (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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