Evaluating the Yields of the Rainfed Potato Crop under Climate Change Scenarios Using the AquaCrop Model in the Peruvian Altiplano

Jesus Puma-Cahua, Germán Belizario, Wilber Laqui (), Roberto Alfaro, Edilberto Huaquisto and Elmer Calizaya
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Jesus Puma-Cahua: Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
Germán Belizario: Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
Wilber Laqui: Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
Roberto Alfaro: Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
Edilberto Huaquisto: Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Agrícola, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru
Elmer Calizaya: Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno 21001, Peru

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 16, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Ensuring global food security and adapting to the challenges posed by climate change, particularly in rainfed agriculture, are paramount concerns. This research investigates the impacts of climate change on the yield of the potato crop variety Imilla Negra ( Solanum tuberosum spp.) under the extreme climatic conditions of the Peruvian Altiplano. From the experimentation in six crop plots under a rainfed agricultural system, periodic crop growth parameter measurements were obtained from 2017 to 2018. The results showed a good performance of the AquaCrop model in the calibration and validation, successfully simulating crop growth and yield parameters. Climate projections showed precipitation decreases and temperature and evapotranspiration increases for the representative concentration pathway (RCP), RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2023–2050. A comparison of crop yields between the base period (2006–2021) and the period 2023–2037 showed no significant changes, whereas a more considerable decrease was observed for the period 2038–2050. It is concluded that climate change generates moderate impacts on potato crop yields under the rainfed agricultural system in the Peruvian Altiplano due to the average reduction in precipitation.

Keywords: climate change; crop yields; sustainable; AquaCrop; food security; rainfed agriculture; Altiplano (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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