Unveiling Peru’s Agricultural Diversity: Navigating Historical and Future Trends in a Post-COVID-19 Context

Segundo G. Chavez, Erick Arellanos, Jaris Veneros, Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño, Manuel Oliva-Cruz, Carlos Bolaños-Carriel and Ligia García ()
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Segundo G. Chavez: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, 342 Higos Urco, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Erick Arellanos: Instituto de Investigación en Ingeniería Ambiental (INAM), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, 342 Higos Urco, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Jaris Veneros: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, 342 Higos Urco, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Nilton B. Rojas-Briceño: Grupo de Investigación en Ciencia de la Información Geoespacial, Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería y Arquitectura, Universidad Nacional de Moquegua, Pacocha 18610, Peru
Manuel Oliva-Cruz: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, 342 Higos Urco, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Carlos Bolaños-Carriel: Facultad de Ciencias Agrícolas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador
Ligia García: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, 342 Higos Urco, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: Over a comprehensive 5-year assessment, and extrapolating it prospectively until 2025, a thorough examination was conducted of productive agrobiodiversity in nine rural agricultural districts across Peru. The present study involved in-depth interviews with 180 representative farmers of the Coast, Highlands, and Jungle natural regions. Employing the Shannon–Weiner diversity index and the Margalef species richness index, the dynamics within years and across different zones were analyzed. Utilizing quadratic trend models, we assessed the frequency of each crop, aiming for the optimal fit concerning absolute deviation from the mean, mean squared deviation, and mean absolute percentage error. These findings revealed five distinct crop types—tuberous, fruits, cereals, legumes, and roots—distributed across 25 diverse families. Looking ahead to 2025, our projections indicated positive trends in 15 families and negative trends in 9 crop families. The nuanced mathematical distinctions observed in crop management decisions varied significantly depending on the specific area and year, underscoring the importance of localized considerations in agricultural planning.

Keywords: agrobiodiversity; sustainability; quadratic trend models; agricultural projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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