Characterization and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Habitat Quality Evolution in the Bosten Lake Watershed Based on the InVEST and PLUS Models

Yang Wang, Ziyi Sheng, Haowei Wang, Xuan Xue, Jiaxin Hu () and Yuhai Yang ()
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Yang Wang: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Western Arid Region Grassland Resources and Ecology, College of Grassland Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Ziyi Sheng: College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Haowei Wang: College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Xuan Xue: College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Jiaxin Hu: China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, General Office, Beijing 100012, China
Yuhai Yang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: Habitat quality is an important basis for human well-being and the achievement of sustainable development. Based on land-use data for the Bosten Lake Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022, the PLUS and InVEST models are applied in this study to predict and analyze land-use changes and explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the region’s habitat quality. Additionally, we use a geographic detector model to reveal the drivers of spatial variation in habitat quality. The results show that: (1) Land use in Bosten Lake Basin is dominated by grassland and bare land, with an area share of 93.21%. Habitat quality shows a trend of degradation followed by improvement, with a spatial pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. (2) Habitat quality in 2030 increased from 2022 in all cases, with a mean of 0.354 for the natural development scenario, a maximum of 0.355 for the ecological development scenario, and a minimum of 0.353 for the economic development scenario. (3) The main drivers affecting habitat quality in the Bosten Lake watershed are DEM, mean annual precipitation (MAP), and GDP per capita. X1∩X4 (0.50) and X4∩X10 (0.51) are the interaction factors with the largest dominant effect in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively.

Keywords: land use; habitat quality; PLUS; InVEST; geographical detector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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