Assessing the Belt and Road Initiative’s Impact: A Multi-Regression Model Based on Economic Interaction

Tingsong Wang (), Jingyi Xu, Yong Jin and Shuaian Wang
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Tingsong Wang: School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Jingyi Xu: School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Yong Jin: Faculty of Business, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
Shuaian Wang: Faculty of Business, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 11, 1-26

Abstract: This study examines the impact of joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the economies of ASEAN countries, focusing on the shipping industry’s performance. Ten economic interaction indicators were analyzed using data from 2015–2022 and predicting future data for 2015–2030 through GM(1,1) and FOA-SVR models. The principal component regression (PCR) model, combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), assessed the correlation of these indicators with GDP and port container throughput (PCT). The findings reveal a strong correlation between economic interaction scores with China and economic and shipping performance, highlighting Chinese investment’s significant impact on GDP and shipping connectivity’s substantial influence on container throughput. This study provides a framework for quantifying organizational engagement levels and policy effectiveness.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; economic interaction; economy and shipping performance; principal component regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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