Unveiling Climate Trends and Future Projections in Southeastern Brazil: A Case Study of Brazil’s Historic Agricultural Heritage

Lucas da Costa Santos (), Lucas Santos do Patrocínio Figueiró, Fabiani Denise Bender, Jefferson Vieira José, Adma Viana Santos, Julia Eduarda Araujo, Evandro Luiz Mendonça Machado, Ricardo Siqueira da Silva and Jéfferson de Oliveira Costa
Additional contact information
Lucas da Costa Santos: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of the Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys, Hwy. MGT 367 km 585, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil
Lucas Santos do Patrocínio Figueiró: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of the Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys, Hwy. MGT 367 km 585, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil
Fabiani Denise Bender: Embrapa Digital Agriculture, Campinas 13083-896, SP, Brazil
Jefferson Vieira José: Multidisciplinary Center Campus Floresta, Federal University of Acre, Canela Fina Road, km 12, Cruzeiro do Sul 69980-000, AC, Brazil
Adma Viana Santos: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of the Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys, Hwy. MGT 367 km 585, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil
Julia Eduarda Araujo: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of the Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys, Hwy. MGT 367 km 585, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil
Evandro Luiz Mendonça Machado: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of the Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys, Hwy. MGT 367 km 585, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil
Ricardo Siqueira da Silva: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of the Jequitinhonha and Mucuri Valleys, Hwy. MGT 367 km 585, Diamantina 39100-000, MG, Brazil
Jéfferson de Oliveira Costa: Minas Gerais Agricultural Research Agency (EPAMIG), Experimental Field of Gorutuba, Highway MGT 122 km 155, Nova Porteirinha 39525-000, MG, Brazil

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: The intricate relationship between climate and society in a given region demands a profound understanding of climate patterns, especially in agricultural areas like Diamantina, Minas Gerais (MG), recognized by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as the birthplace of the first Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS) in Brazil, situated in the southwest region of the country. Given the growing concerns about climate change, we conducted a meticulous analysis of the climatic characteristics of Diamantina-MG. To achieve this, we examined historical meteorological data from 1973 to 2022, employing the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests to analyze trends. Additionally, we utilized three global climate models (GCMs) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to predict future climate scenarios (2021–2100) based on the projections of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Furthermore, we used Köppen and Thornthwaite climate classification methodologies to characterize both the current and future climate conditions of the region. Our results indicate that, historically, Diamantina-MG has experienced significant increases in minimum temperature, indicating a warmer climate in recent decades. For temperature, the projections show a consensus among models, projecting a continuous increase, potentially reaching up to 5.8 °C above the historical average temperature (19.2 °C) by the end of the century. Regarding rainfall projections, they show greater uncertainty, with discrepancies among models observed until 2060. However, specifically for the second half of the century (2060–2100), the models agree that there will be increases in annual rainfall. Regarding the climatic types of the region, we found that the current Köppen Cwb and Thornthwaite B3rB’3a’ classifications could shift to Aw and B1wA’a’, representing a humid tropical savanna climate with longer periods of water deficiency, considering the impacts resulting from increased air temperature and evapotranspiration. In summary, the study’s results indicate that climate changes are occurring and are likely to intensify in the Jequitinhonha Valley region, MG, in the future. The analysis of these data, from the perspective of the Brazilian GIAHS sustainability, reveals the importance of considering adaptation and mitigation measures to ensure the resilience of agricultural systems and local communities in the region that face these significant environmental changes.

Keywords: global climate models; climate change; climate projections; world heritage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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