Assessing the Link between Wildfires, Vulnerability, and Climate Change: Insights from the Regions of Greece

Petros Xepapadeas, Kostas Douvis, Ioannis Kapsomenakis, Anastasios Xepapadeas and Christos Zerefos
Additional contact information
Petros Xepapadeas: Research Laboratory on Socio-Economic and Environmental Sustainability, Athens University of Economics and Business, 10434 Athens, Greece
Kostas Douvis: Research Center for Atmospheric Physics & Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece
Ioannis Kapsomenakis: Research Center for Atmospheric Physics & Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece
Christos Zerefos: Research Center for Atmospheric Physics & Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 11, 1-25

Abstract: Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services which are important for achieving sustainable development. Anthropogenic climate change has led to the increased frequency and severity of forest fires, which imply losses of valuable ecosystem services. This paper provides a methodological framework based on Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods for determining relative regional vulnerabilities associated with forest fires. Different notions of ex-post vulnerability are defined based on the forest area burned and the frequency of forest fires, and their relation to the regions’ area and certain socioeconomic characteristics. The climatic drivers of forest fire occurrence are explored by linking forest fires with summer and spring temperatures and precipitation, using econometric count data analysis. The methodology is applied to Greece and its administrative regions for the period 2000–2022. Ex-post vulnerability of regions to forest fires based on physical and socioeconomic characteristics is calculated, and expected changes in the frequency of fires of specific size classes conditional on the evolution of mean seasonal regional temperature and precipitation according to IPCC scenarios are predicted. Relative vulnerability estimates and the impact of specific climatic drivers on forest fires will be useful in designing policies for preserving forests as natural capital and promoting sustainability.

Keywords: wildfires; regional vulnerability; climate change; ecosystem services; multicriteria decision making; Poisson regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/11/4822/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/11/4822/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:11:p:4822-:d:1409349

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().