Contributing to Carbon Neutrality Targets: A Scenario Simulation and Pattern Optimization of Land Use in Shandong Province Based on the PLUS Model

Xiang-Yi Ma, Yi-Fan Xu, Qian Sun, Wen-Jun Liu and Wei Qi ()
Additional contact information
Xiang-Yi Ma: College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
Yi-Fan Xu: College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
Qian Sun: College of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
Wen-Jun Liu: College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
Wei Qi: College of Resource and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 12, 1-24

Abstract: Land use profoundly impacts the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Optimizing land use patterns is a vital approach to mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. Using Shandong Province as a case study, this research evaluates the impacts of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on regional carbon storage and emissions. Employing a coupled PLUS–InVEST–GM(1,1) model, simulations were conducted for scenarios including the natural scenario (NS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), high-speed development scenario (HDS), and low-carbon scenario (LCS), to assess LUCC and changes in carbon storage and emissions from 2030 to 2060 under these scenarios. The findings indicate that due to the expansion of construction land and significant declines in arable and grassland areas, carbon emissions increased by 40,436.44 × 10 4 t over a 20-year period, while carbon storage decreased by 4881.13 × 10 4 t. Notably, forests contributed the most to carbon sequestration, while construction land emerged as the primary source of carbon emissions. Simulating four scenarios demonstrates that measures such as protecting cropland, expanding forest, grassland, and aquatic areas, controlling construction land expansion, and promoting intensive development positively affect emission reductions and carbon sequestration in Shandong. These findings underscore the importance of rational planning of land use patterns, which can enhance contributions to carbon neutrality by harmonizing the relationships among cropland protection, ecological conservation, and economic development.

Keywords: carbon neutrality; PLUS model; LUCC; land management; scenario prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/12/5180/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/12/5180/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:12:p:5180-:d:1417258

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().