An Evaluation of Dryland Ulluco Cultivation Yields in the Face of Climate Change Scenarios in the Central Andes of Peru by Using the AquaCrop Model

Ricardo Flores-Marquez (), Jesús Vera-Vílchez, Patricia Verástegui-Martínez, Sphyros Lastra and Richard Solórzano-Acosta
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Ricardo Flores-Marquez: Centro Experimental La Molina, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), La Molina 1981, Lima 15024, Peru
Jesús Vera-Vílchez: Estación Experimental Agraria Santa Ana, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), Carretera Saños Grande—Hualahoyo Km 8, Huancayo 12007, Peru
Patricia Verástegui-Martínez: Estación Experimental Agraria Santa Ana, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), Carretera Saños Grande—Hualahoyo Km 8, Huancayo 12007, Peru
Sphyros Lastra: Centro Experimental La Molina, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), La Molina 1981, Lima 15024, Peru
Richard Solórzano-Acosta: Centro Experimental La Molina, Dirección de Supervisión y Monitoreo en las Estaciones Experimentales Agrarias, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), La Molina 1981, Lima 15024, Peru

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 13, 1-22

Abstract: Ullucus tuberosus is an Andean region crop adapted to high-altitude environments and dryland cultivation. It is an essential resource that guarantees food security due to its carbohydrate, protein, and low-fat content. However, current change patterns in precipitation and temperatures warn of complex scenarios where climate change will affect this crop. Therefore, predicting these effects through simulation is a valuable tool for evaluating this crop’s sustainability. This study aims to evaluate ulluco’s crop yield under dryland conditions at 3914 m.a.s.l. considering climate change scenarios from 2024 to 2100 by using the AquaCrop model. Simulations were carried out using current meteorological data, crop agronomic information, and simulations for SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 of CMIP 6. The results indicate that minimum temperature increases and seasonal precipitation exacerbation will significantly influence yields. Increases in rainfall and environmental CO 2 concentrations show an opportunity window for yield increment in the early stages. However, a negative trend is observed for 2050–2100, mainly due to crop temperature stress. These findings highlight the importance of developing more resistant ulluco varieties to heat stress conditions, adapting water management practices, continuing modeling climate change effects on crops, and investing in research on smallholder agriculture to reach Sustainable Development Goals 1, 2, and 13.

Keywords: Andean tuber; Ullucus; climate change; AquaCrop; yield response (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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