Predicting the Global Extinction Risk for 6569 Species by Applying the Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method to the Impact of Future Land Use Changes

Runya Liu (), Haruka Ohashi, Akiko Hirata, Longlong Tang, Tetsuya Matsui, Kousuke Terasaki, Ryuzo Furukawa and Norihiro Itsubo
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Runya Liu: Graduate School of the Environmental Information Studies, Tokyo City University, Yokohama 224-0015, Japan
Haruka Ohashi: Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan
Akiko Hirata: Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan
Longlong Tang: Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Kannondai 3-1-3, Tsukuba 305-8604, Japan
Tetsuya Matsui: Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan
Kousuke Terasaki: MS&AD InterRisk Research & Consulting, Inc., Tokyo 101-0063, Japan
Ryuzo Furukawa: Graduate School of the Environmental Information Studies, Tokyo City University, Yokohama 224-0015, Japan
Norihiro Itsubo: Department of Resources and Environment Engineering, School of Creative Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Okubo Shinjuku-Ku, Tokyo 169-8555, Japan

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 13, 1-14

Abstract: Land use change is considered to be one of the key direct drivers of ecosystem erosion and biodiversity loss. The Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) serves as a robust tool for environmental impact assessment, featuring an advanced framework and indicators for assessing global biodiversity loss. In this research, we utilized the Species Distribution Model (SDM) to evaluate 6569 species across five taxonomic groups. We simulated habitat change and losses induced by land use changes under sustainable future scenarios from the present to 2100. This enables us to assess spatial extinction risks based on shifts in the global distribution of species. Our findings reveal a global biodiversity extinction risk of approximately 4.9 species/year, equivalent to an extinction rate of 745.9 E/MSY. Notably, higher-risk hotspots have been identified in regions such as South America, South Australia, and New Zealand. Although future sustainable scenarios involving land intensification may mitigate the biodiversity extinction rate, the objective of reaching 10 E/MSY by the end of this century remains a distant goal. By providing a more rational basis for biodiversity loss, the indicators of spatial extinction risk demonstrate the advantage of effectively reflecting regional characteristics.

Keywords: biodiversity; extinction risk; land use change; LCIA; future scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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