Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Maomao Zhang (), Enqing Chen (), Cheng Zhang, Chen Liu and Jianxing Li
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Maomao Zhang: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China
Enqing Chen: School of Education and Foreign Languages, Wuhan Donghu University, Wuhan 430212, China
Cheng Zhang: School of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China
Chen Liu: College of Art, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China
Jianxing Li: School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430079, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 14, 1-23

Abstract: Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to the expected future to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes in Ezhou and their potential impacts on the ecosystem services value (ESV). The results show that the Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability in predicting the spatial pattern of land use, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9433 and a FoM value of 0.1080. Between 2000 and 2020, construction land expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, and other land types experienced varying degrees of contraction. Notably, the area of construction land expanded significantly compared to 2000, and it expanded by 70.99% in 2020. Moreover, the watershed area expanded by 9.30% from 2000 to 2010, but there was very little change in the following 10 years. Under the three scenarios, significant differences in land use changes were observed in Ezhou City, driven by human activities, particularly the strong expansion of construction land. In the inertial development scenario, construction land expanded to 313.39 km 2 by 2030, representing a 38.30% increase from 2020. Conversely, under the farmland protection scenario, construction land increased to 237.66 km 2 , a 4.89% rise from 2020. However, in the ecological priority development scenario, the construction land area expanded to 253.59 km 2 , a 10.13% increase from 2020. Compared to 2020, the ESV losses in the inertia development and farmland protection scenarios were USD 4497.71 and USD 1072.23, respectively, by 2030. Conversely, the ESV under the ecological protection scenario increased by USD 2749.09, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological protection in Ezhou City’s development. This study may provide new clues for the formulation of regional strategies for sustainable land use and ecosystem restoration.

Keywords: land use change; sustainable development; multiple scenarios; ecosystem service value (ESV); Markov–FLUS model; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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