A Methodology for Forecasting the KPIs of a Region’s Development: Case of the Russian Arctic

Yuriy Zhukovskiy, Pavel Tsvetkov (), Anastasia Koshenkova, Ivan Skvortsov, Iuliia Andreeva and Valeriya Vorobeva
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Yuriy Zhukovskiy: Educational Research Center for Digital Technologies, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Pavel Tsvetkov: Department of Economics, Organization and Management, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 2 21st Line, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Anastasia Koshenkova: Department of Environmental Geology, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Ivan Skvortsov: Department of Electrical Engineering, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Iuliia Andreeva: Department of Electrical Engineering, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia
Valeriya Vorobeva: Department of Electrical Engineering, Saint Petersburg Mining University, 199106 Saint Petersburg, Russia

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 15, 1-25

Abstract: Forecasting the development of regions is one of the most challenging tasks of modern economics. The quality of any forecast is determined by the methodology used. Accordingly, criticism of existing forecasts is largely connected to their methodological approaches. In this paper, a multi-level approach to forecasting the development of the region is proposed, starting with the definition of the key performance indicators and ending with the assessment of various scenarios. The study was conducted on the example of the Russian Arctic, divided into three technological zones, with three scenarios of the development for each (negative, base, positive). The application of the proposed methodology allowed for modeling the development of the region until 2035. The results show that the Russian Arctic has a huge difference in the achievability of different goals, e.g., 98% of the electricity supply targets are achievable in a baseline scenario, while only 52% are achievable in a set of “navigation” targets. The proposed methodology can be useful for diving into the details of regional forecasts, such as the impact of key companies in a region or the influence of international politics.

Keywords: scenario modeling; key performance indicators; technological development; risk management; Arctic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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