Dynamic Simulation of Energy Scenarios in the Transition to Sustainable Mobility in the Ecuadorian Transport Sector

Johana Atiaja, Flavio Arroyo (), Víctor Hidalgo, José Erazo, Abel Remache and Dely Bravo
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Johana Atiaja: Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador
Flavio Arroyo: Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador
Víctor Hidalgo: Carrera de Pedagogía Técnica de la Mecatrónica, Facultad de Filosofía, Letras y Ciencias de la Educación, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito 170129, Ecuador
José Erazo: Laboratorio de Mecánica Informática, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito 170517, Ecuador
Abel Remache: Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador
Dely Bravo: Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Av. Universitaria, Quito 170129, Ecuador

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 15, 1-14

Abstract: In Ecuador, the growth of the transportation sector has significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions. According to experts, this sector currently contributes to 49.8% of total greenhouse gas emissions in this country. This poses significant challenges for environmental sustainability, emphasizing the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate these emissions and promote environmentally friendly practices. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a dynamic simulation of energy scenarios for the year 2035 in the transportation sector, with the goal of transitioning to sustainable mobility, as fossil fuels are the main pollutants in the country. This study proposes system dynamics models using VENSIM 6.0b software to estimate the total energy demand and pollutant emissions in the transportation sector. The results suggest that if Ecuador aligns with global mobility trends and implements public policies promoting the use of electric vehicles, total CO 2 emissions could potentially decrease from 50,161,432 kilobarrels of oil equivalent (kBOE) to 20,589,720 kBOE by the year 2035.

Keywords: dynamic simulation; energy demand; pollutant emissions; transport sector; sustainable mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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