Changes in Wuhan’s Carbon Stocks and Their Spatial Distributions in 2050 under Multiple Projection Scenarios

Yujie Zhang, Xiaoyu Wang, Lei Zhang, Hongbin Xu, Taeyeol Jung () and Lei Xiao ()
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Yujie Zhang: Department of Landscape Architecture, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Republic of Korea
Xiaoyu Wang: Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China
Lei Zhang: Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry, Hohhot 010010, China
Hongbin Xu: Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry, Hohhot 010010, China
Taeyeol Jung: Department of Landscape Architecture, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Republic of Korea
Lei Xiao: Department of Landscape Architecture, School of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 15, 1-21

Abstract: Urbanization in the 21st century has reshaped carbon stock distributions through the expansion of cities. By using the PLUS and InVEST models, this study predicts land use and carbon stocks in Wuhan in 2050 using three future scenarios. Employing local Moran’s I, we analyze carbon stock clustering under these scenarios, and the Getis–Ord Gi* statistic identifies regions with significantly higher and lower carbon-stock changes between 2020 and 2050. The results reveal a 2.5 Tg decline in Wuhan’s carbon stock from 2000 to 2020, concentrated from the central to the outer city areas along the Yangtze River. By 2050, the ecological conservation scenario produced the highest carbon stock prediction, 77.48 Tg, while the economic development scenario produced the lowest, 76.4 Tg. High-carbon stock-change areas cluster in the north and south, contrasting with low-change area concentrations in the center. This research provides practical insights that support Wuhan’s sustainable development and carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords: carbon storage; Wuhan; scenario simulation; local spatial autocorrelation; land use; PLUS-InVEST model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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