Assessing Sustainable Development in Community Welfare and Economic Resilience to Extreme Weather in Indonesia

Resa Septiani Pontoh (), Valerie Vincent Yang, Ginta Yufendi Laura, Rahma Ariza Riantika, Restu Arisanti, Sri Winarni and Farhat Gumelar
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Resa Septiani Pontoh: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia
Valerie Vincent Yang: Bachelor Programme of Statistics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia
Ginta Yufendi Laura: Bachelor Programme of Statistics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia
Rahma Ariza Riantika: Bachelor Programme of Statistics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia
Restu Arisanti: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia
Sri Winarni: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia
Farhat Gumelar: Bachelor Programme of Statistics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 45363, Indonesia

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 15, 1-13

Abstract: In recent decades, Indonesia has experienced a surge in natural disasters, resulting in increased casualties and disruptions to economic growth and welfare. This study investigates the impact of various types of natural disasters, focusing on how economic growth (measured by provincial GDP) and welfare levels (measured by the Human Development Index, HDI) influence the number of victims affected by extreme weather. Data on gross regional domestic product and the Human Development Index for each province in Indonesia were obtained from Statistics Indonesia. We employed multivariable negative binomial regression to analyze the relationships between the number of victims affected by extreme weather, provincial HDI, and provincial GDP. The results indicate significant correlations between provincial GDP, HDI, and the number of victims. Higher HDI correlates with fewer victims, whereas higher GDP is associated with an increase in victims. Additionally, we used the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method, identifying two clusters as the optimal model. Cluster 1 comprises 31 provinces, while Cluster 2 comprises 3 provinces, with the latter highlighting the provinces with the highest disaster risk. Consequently, provinces such as West Java, Central Java, and East Java require heightened attention from various stakeholders involved in disaster management efforts. By examining these relationships, our study contributes to the understanding of sustainable development and resilience against natural disasters. It underscores the importance of improving welfare and economic policies to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.

Keywords: extreme weather; Human Development Index; gross domestic product; disaster resilience; sustainable development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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