Results of a Survey of UK Farmers on Food System Vulnerability over the Short and Long Term

Aled Jones (), Sarah Bridle, Pete Falloon, Jez Fredenburgh and Christian Reynolds
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Aled Jones: Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK
Sarah Bridle: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK
Pete Falloon: Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Jez Fredenburgh: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Christian Reynolds: Centre for Food Policy, City, University of London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 16, 1-15

Abstract: We report the results of a survey of farmers and landowners to identify the most likely potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK and compare these with a previous expert elicitation with a much wider set of food system stakeholders. We found that 60% of farmers think a Societal Event in which 1 in 2000 people are injured in the UK is at least 20% likely to occur over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to almost 90% of farmers. These results show that farmers and landowners are considerably more concerned about the vulnerability of the food system in the UK than the wider group of food system experts are. Farmers agreed with experts on the majority of potential causes of such vulnerability, which are climate change, trade policies (import and export), competition for land and ecological collapse (over 50 years). However, they also highlighted the importance of the power structure within the food system, with large corporations supplying to, or buying from, farmers creating lower revenue, making farming an unsustainable business. We conclude that an urgent systematic review of potential interventions that would improve resilience be conducted by the UK Government, in partnership with farmers.

Keywords: food systems; global catastrophic risk; climate change; extreme weather; scenarios; cascading risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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