Assessing Climate Change Projections through High-Resolution Modelling: A Comparative Study of Three European Cities

Ana Ascenso (), Bruno Augusto, Sílvia Coelho, Isilda Menezes, Alexandra Monteiro, Sandra Rafael, Joana Ferreira, Carla Gama, Peter Roebeling and Ana Isabel Miranda
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Ana Ascenso: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Bruno Augusto: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Sílvia Coelho: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Isilda Menezes: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Alexandra Monteiro: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Sandra Rafael: IDAD—Institute of Environment and Development, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Joana Ferreira: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Carla Gama: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Peter Roebeling: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Ana Isabel Miranda: CESAM & Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 17, 1-21

Abstract: Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions, challenging cities to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures. This paper assesses climate change projections for different urban areas in Europe –Eindhoven (The Netherlands), Genova (Italy) and Tampere (Finland)—and discusses how nature-based solutions (NBS) can help climate change adaptation in these cities. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model was used to simulate the climate of the recent past and the medium-term future, considering the RCP4.5 scenario, using nesting capabilities and high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ). Climate indices focusing on temperature-related metrics are calculated for each city: Daily Temperature Range, Summer Days, Tropical Nights, Icing Days, and Frost Days. Despite the uncertainties of this modelling study, it was possible to identify some potential trends for the future. The strongest temperature increase was found during winter, whereas warming is less distinct in summer, except for Tampere, which could experience warmer summers and colder winters. The warming in Genova is predicted mainly outside of the main urban areas. Results indicate that on average the temperature in Eindhoven will increase more than in Genova, while in Tampere a small reduction in annual average temperature was estimated. NBS could help mitigate the increase in Summer Days and Tropical Nights projected for Genova and Eindhoven in the warmer months, and the increase in the number of Frost Days and Icing Days in Eindhoven (in winter) and Tampere (in autumn). To avoid undesirable impacts of NBS, proper planning concerning the location and type of NBS, vegetation characteristics and seasonality, is needed.

Keywords: modelling; climate change; RCP 4.5; city scale; climate indices; nature-based solutions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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