Assessing Future Agricultural Vulnerability in Kashmir Valley: Mid- and Late-Century Projections Using SSP Scenarios

Majid Farooq, Suraj Kumar Singh (), Shruti Kanga, Gowhar Meraj, Fayma Mushtaq, Bojan Đurin, Quoc Bao Pham and Julian Hunt
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Majid Farooq: Centre for Climate Change and Water Research, Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur 302017, India
Suraj Kumar Singh: Centre for Climate Change and Water Research, Suresh Gyan Vihar University, Jaipur 302017, India
Shruti Kanga: Department of Geography, School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Central University, Bathinda 151401, India
Gowhar Meraj: Department of Ecosystem Studies, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan
Fayma Mushtaq: Applied Research Center for Environment and Marine Studies, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Bojan Đurin: Department of Civil Engineering, University North, Jurja Križanića 31b, 42000 Varazdin, Croatia
Quoc Bao Pham: Institute of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Będzińska Street 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland
Julian Hunt: Climate and Livability Initiative, Center for Desert Agriculture, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 17, 1-27

Abstract: The fragile environment of the Himalayan region is prone to natural hazards, which are intensified by climate change, leading to food and livelihood insecurity for inhabitants. Therefore, building resilience in the most dominant livelihood sector, i.e., the agricultural sector, has become a priority in development and planning. To assess the perils induced by climate change on the agriculture sector in the ecologically fragile region of Kashmir Valley, a study has been conducted to evaluate the risk using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework. The risk index has been derived based on socioeconomic and ecological indicators for risk determinants, i.e., vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. Furthermore, the study also evaluated the future risk to the agriculture sector under changing climatic conditions using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 at mid- and late-century timescales. It was observed that districts such as Bandipora (0.59), Kulgam (0.56), Ganderbal (0.56), and Kupwara (0.54) are most vulnerable due to drivers like low per capita income, yield variability, and areas with >30% slope. Shopian and Srinagar were found to be the least vulnerable due to adaptive capacity factors like livelihood diversification, crop diversification, percentage of tree crops, and percentage of agriculture labor. In terms of the Risk index, the districts found to be at high risk are Baramulla (0.19), Pulwama (0.16), Kupwara (0.15), and Budgam (0.13). In addition, the findings suggested that the region would experience a higher risk of natural hazards by the mid- (MC) and end-century (EC) due to the projected increase in temperature with decreasing precipitation, which would have an impact on crop yields and the livelihoods of farmers in the region.

Keywords: CMIP6; hazard; risk; shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); spatial; vulnerability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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