Development of Risk Quantification Models in Road Infrastructure Projects

Aleksandar Senić, Momčilo Dobrodolac () and Zoran Stojadinović
Additional contact information
Aleksandar Senić: Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Momčilo Dobrodolac: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
Zoran Stojadinović: Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 17, 1-20

Abstract: Road infrastructure is a significant factor in the development of any country, affecting economic growth, social development, and environmental sustainability. Large infrastructure projects often face significant risks and uncertainties, which can lead to delays, budget over-runs, and an insufficient quality of the completed work. These issues undermine the economic viability of projects and affect the overall efficiency of infrastructure development. For these reasons, based on a literature review and completed project analysis, the risks that lead to an increasing Contract Price (ICP) and an Extension of Time (EoT) for the construction of the project are identified. Based on the results of the completed project analysis, the values of the ICP and EoT were quantified. Also, the probability of the occurrence of each risk in new projects was calculated. Based on the obtained results, a model was defined that groups risks into clusters. Risks in the first cluster should have priority for funding, and preventive measures are defined for them. The model obtained in this way can greatly enhance project management in real-world conditions and can lead to a significant reduction in project time and budget over-runs.

Keywords: road infrastructure; risk prevention; risk management; extension of time; increasing contract price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/17/7694/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/17/7694/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:17:p:7694-:d:1471377

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().