Assessing Hydrological Response and Resilience of Watersheds as Strategy for Climatic Change Adaptation in Neotropical Region

Matheus E. K. Ogasawara (), Eduardo M. Mattos, Humberto R. Rocha, Xiaohua Wei and Silvio F. B. Ferraz
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Matheus E. K. Ogasawara: Forest Hydrology Laboratory, Department of Forest Sciences, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba 13418-900, Brazil
Eduardo M. Mattos: Geplant Forest Technology Ltd., Piracicaba 13418-360, Brazil
Humberto R. Rocha: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-220, Brazil
Xiaohua Wei: Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
Silvio F. B. Ferraz: Forest Hydrology Laboratory, Department of Forest Sciences, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba 13418-900, Brazil

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 20, 1-16

Abstract: This study aimed to assess the hydrological response and resilience of watersheds in a neotropical region to identify regions sensitive to climate variations, enabling the development of adaptive strategies in response to global environmental changes. This study applied Budyko’s framework using Fuh’s hydrological model rewritten by Zhou to estimate hydrological response and Budyko’s metrics (deviation and elasticity) to estimate hydrological resilience to climatic changes in 26 watersheds in southeastern Brazil. The proposed modeling was able to capture the differences among the watersheds, with “m” values ranging from 1.79 to 3.63. It was possible to rank the hydrological resilience from low to high across watersheds using Budyko’s metrics, where the highest values of elasticity were found in watersheds with a higher percentage of forest cover. The sensitive analyses showed that watersheds with higher “m” values are more sensitive to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The results also demonstrate that mean elevation and stream density were two key variables that influence the “m” value; these physiographic characteristics may alter the water and energy balance of the watershed affecting the water yield. A relationship between watershed’s hydrological response and resilience was proposed to identify critical areas for the stability of water yield in the watersheds, providing a guide for public policy and suggesting ways to help the management of water resources in watersheds.

Keywords: hydrological model; water resource; climate change; watershed resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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