Assessing the Cascading Post-Earthquake Fire-Risk Scenario in Urban Centres

Glenda Mascheri (), Nicola Chieffo, Nicola Tondini, Cláudia Pinto and Paulo B. Lourenço
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Glenda Mascheri: Department of Civil Engineering, Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems (ARISE), Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Structural Engineering (ISISE), University of Minho, Campus de Azurém, 4800-058 Guimarães, Portugal
Nicola Chieffo: Department of Engineering, School of Computing and Engineering, University of Huddersfield, Queensgate, Huddersfield HD1 3DH, UK
Nicola Tondini: Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Via Mesiano 77, 38123 Trento, Italy
Cláudia Pinto: Câmara Municipal de Lisboa, 1749-099 Lisbon, Portugal
Paulo B. Lourenço: Department of Civil Engineering, Advanced Production and Intelligent Systems (ARISE), Institute for Sustainability and Innovation in Structural Engineering (ISISE), University of Minho, Campus de Azurém, 4800-058 Guimarães, Portugal

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 20, 1-21

Abstract: The frequency of urban fires has grown in recent years everywhere, especially in historic districts, including in Portugal, due to the existence of sensitive igniting materials, the proximity of buildings, the complex urban layout, and the presence of many people. The current study proposes a technique, applied in the Baixa Pombalina (downtown) area in Lisbon, to undertake an appropriate evaluation of the post-earthquake fire cascading effect, which may cause major damage. The earthquake vulnerability and damage scenario were carried out using the Risk-UE method. An empirical fire ignition model was then applied to determine the quantity and location of fire ignitions for different return periods. Furthermore, the simple fire spread Hamada’s model was applied to both the equally spaced grid buildings, as in the original Hamada procedure, and the current study area layout for different time thresholds. Finally, the risk assessment for both models was carried out, allowing for the estimation of earthquake and fire losses, respectively. The results demonstrated that the models are comparable, showing that the Hamada model might be a useful tool for large-scale evaluations aimed at disaster-risk reduction and management since it gives useful information for managing and reducing natural and anthropogenic hazards.

Keywords: seismic damage; fire ignition; fire spread; cascading effect; loss estimation; post-earthquake fire hazard (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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