Resilient Coastal Protection Infrastructures: Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis of Wave Overtopping Using Gaussian Process Surrogate Models

Paul Kent, Soroush Abolfathi, Hannah Al Ali, Tabassom Sedighi, Omid Chatrabgoun and Alireza Daneshkhah ()
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Paul Kent: Department of Computer Science, University of Exeter, Exeter EX1 2LU, UK
Soroush Abolfathi: School of Engineering, The University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
Hannah Al Ali: Faculty of Mathematics and Data Science, Emirates Aviation University, Dubai P.O. Box 53044, United Arab Emirates
Tabassom Sedighi: International Policing and Public Protection Research Institute (IPPPRI), Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK
Omid Chatrabgoun: School of Computing, Mathematics and Data Science, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
Alireza Daneshkhah: Faculty of Mathematics and Data Science, Emirates Aviation University, Dubai P.O. Box 53044, United Arab Emirates

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 20, 1-22

Abstract: This paper presents a novel mathematical framework for assessing and predicting the resilience of critical coastal infrastructures against wave overtopping hazards and extreme climatic events. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis model is developed to evaluate the relative influence of hydrodynamic, geomorphological, and structural factors contributing to wave overtopping dynamics. Additionally, a stochastic Gaussian process (GP) model is introduced to predict the mean overtopping discharge from coastal defences. Both the sensitivity analysis and the predictive models are validated using a large homogeneous dataset comprising 163 laboratory and field-scale tests. Statistical evaluations demonstrate the superior performance of the GPs in identifying key parameters driving wave overtopping and predicting mean discharge rates, outperforming existing regression-based formulae. The proposed model offers a robust predictive tool for assessing the performance of critical coastal protection infrastructures under various climate scenarios.

Keywords: climate resilience; coastal flooding; Gaussian processes; probabilistic sensitivity analysis; wave overtopping; coastal defence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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