A Spatial Landslide Risk Assessment Based on Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity

Thong Xuan Tran (), Sihong Liu, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Long Quoc Nguyen, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Cong-Ty Trinh and Chinh Luu
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Thong Xuan Tran: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Sihong Liu: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Hang Ha: Department of Geodesy and Geomatic Engineering, Hanoi University of Civil Engineering, Hanoi 11616, Vietnam
Quynh Duy Bui: Department of Geodesy and Geomatic Engineering, Hanoi University of Civil Engineering, Hanoi 11616, Vietnam
Long Quoc Nguyen: Department of Mine Surveying, Hanoi University of Mining and Geology, Hanoi 11909, Vietnam
Dinh Quoc Nguyen: Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology Lab, Phenikaa University, Hanoi 12116, Vietnam
Cong-Ty Trinh: Faculty of Hydraulic Engineering, Hanoi University of Civil Engineering, Hanoi 11616, Vietnam
Chinh Luu: Faculty of Hydraulic Engineering, Hanoi University of Civil Engineering, Hanoi 11616, Vietnam

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 21, 1-37

Abstract: Landslides threaten human life, property, and vital infrastructure in most mountainous regions. As climate change intensifies extreme weather patterns, the landslide risk is likely to increase, resulting in challenges for disaster management, sustainability development, and community resilience. This study presents a comprehensive framework for assessing landslide risk, integrating advanced machine learning models with the Iyengar–Sudarshan method. Our case study is Son La province, the Northwest region of Vietnam, with data collected from 1771 historical landslide occurrences and fifteen influencing factors for developing landslide susceptibility maps using advanced ensemble machine learning models. The Iyengar–Sudarshan method was applied to determine the weights for landslide exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity indicators. The resulting landslide risk map shows that the highest-risk districts in Son La province are located in the central and northeastern regions, including Mai Son, Phu Yen, Thuan Chau, Yen Chau, Song Ma, and Bac Yen. These districts experience high landslide hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, often affecting densely populated urban and village areas with vulnerable populations, such as young children, the elderly, and working-age women. In contrast, due to minimal exposure, Quynh Nhai and Muong La districts have lower landslide risks. Despite having high exposure and vulnerability, Son La City is situated in a low-susceptibility zone with high adaptive capacity, resulting in a low landslide risk for this region. The proposed framework provides a reference tool for mitigating risk and enhancing strategic decision making in areas susceptible to landslides while advancing our understanding of landslide dynamics and fostering community resilience and long-term disaster prevention.

Keywords: landslide risk assessment; hazard; exposure; vulnerability; adaptive capacity; machine learning; Iyengar–Sudarshan method; Son La province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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