Life Cycle Prediction of Airport Operation Based on System Dynamics

Lili Wan, Zhanpeng Shan, Xinyue Jiang, Zhan Wang (), Yangyang Lv, Shumeng Xu and Jiahui Huang
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Lili Wan: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Zhanpeng Shan: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Xinyue Jiang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Zhan Wang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Yangyang Lv: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Shumeng Xu: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Jiahui Huang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 21, 1-26

Abstract: Traditional airport development planning often overlooks an in-depth consideration of the airport operation life cycle, which frequently causes deviations from planned objectives during operation. This paper presents a framework for predicting and segmenting the airport operation life cycle by integrating the dynamic characteristics of the System Dynamics (SD) model with the static properties of Logistic modeling to examine the development trajectory of airport operations. The influencing factors in this model are selected across three levels: airport, city, and macro-environment. A system dynamics model of airport operation is constructed using causal loop diagrams and system flow diagrams. Using Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) as a case study, the airport’s operational capacity from 2005 to 2035 is predicted through SD simulation. Subsequently, the airport operation life cycle from 2005 to 2050 is forecasted and segmented using Logistic modeling. The results indicate that, under the standard scenario, CAN’s operational capacity experiences two declines in 2016 and 2020, attributed to airport construction and emergencies. Logistic modeling identifies three distinct life cycle phases in the airport’s operation. Furthermore, by comparing various airport operation scenarios, the analysis reveals that fluctuations in the city economy significantly impact the airport’s operational system without altering its overall development trajectory. In contrast, the occurrence of emergencies can substantially modify the airport operation life cycle.

Keywords: air transportation; airport operations; life cycle; system dynamics; logistic modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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