Time Series Perspective on the Sustainability of the South African Food and Beverage Sector

Thabiso E. Masena, Sarah L. Mahlangu and Sandile C. Shongwe ()
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Thabiso E. Masena: Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9301, South Africa
Sarah L. Mahlangu: Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9301, South Africa
Sandile C. Shongwe: Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9301, South Africa

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-21

Abstract: This study aims to quantify and graphically illustrate the negative lingering effect that the COVID-19 pandemic had on the sales in South African Rands (ZAR) of the food and beverage sector using the time series seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous components (SARIMAX) intervention model. The SARIMAX 2 , 1 , 0 0 , 1 , 2 12 intervention model provided the best fit, supported by the lowest values of the model selection and error metrics (Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and root mean square error). The total estimated loss of sales in the 52 months during the intervention period (March 2020 to June 2024) amounts to ZAR 130,579 million. The most affected months were April 2020 and May 2020 with estimated losses of ZAR 7719 million and ZAR 7633 million, respectively. The findings of this study align with the Statistics South Africa ® statistical report based on empirical estimation without any model fitting, thus highlighting the effectiveness of the SARIMAX intervention model in quantifying the effects of the pandemic. The lingering negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic still continues to threaten the sustainability of the South African food and beverage sector, violating the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal, Number 2, which is to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.

Keywords: food and beverage sales; COVID-19 intervention; intervention analysis; pulse function; step function; United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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