Priority Conservation Area of Quercus mongolica Under Climate Change: Application of an Ensemble Modeling

Lei Liu, Fengzi Li, Long Hai (), Rula Sa (), Minglong Gao, Zirui Wang and Niu Tie
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Lei Liu: Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China
Fengzi Li: Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China
Long Hai: Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China
Rula Sa: Inner Mongolia Great Khingan Range Forest Ecosystem Field Science Observation and Research Station, Hulun Buir 022350, China
Minglong Gao: Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education on Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Zirui Wang: Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education on Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management, School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Niu Tie: Inner Mongolia Great Khingan Range Forest Ecosystem Field Science Observation and Research Station, Hulun Buir 022350, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-17

Abstract: As the primary secondary tree species in Northeast China, Quercus mongolica possesses significant ecological and economic value. This study employed the Biomod2 platform in conjunction with ArcGIS spatial analysis to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution area of Q. mongolica under current climatic conditions. Furthermore, it forecasted the distribution range and niche changes of potentially suitable habitats for Q. mongolica from 2022 to 2090 and pinpointed the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The findings reveal that the total potential suitable area for Q. mongolica covers 74,994.792 km 2 , predominantly spread across Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other regions. The primary determinants of suitable area distribution were peak temperature of hottest month, lowest temperature of coldest month, and altitude. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of Q. mongolica are anticipated to diminish to varying extents, with the distribution center exhibiting a tendency towards northward migration. Concurrently, the overlap among different climate scenarios is predicted to expand over time. This investigation facilitates a comprehensive understanding of Q. mongolica ’s adaptation to climate change, enabling informed adjustments and serving as a valuable reference for the preservation and sustainable management of Q. mongolica populations.

Keywords: Quercus mongolica; Biomod2; ensemble model; climate change; niche changes; potential distribution; conservation planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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