Assessing Drought Patterns in Al-Baha: Implications for Water Resources and Climate Adaptation

Hesham M. Ibrahim (), Abdulaziz G. Alghamdi and Anwar A. Aly
Additional contact information
Hesham M. Ibrahim: Department of Soil Sciences, College of Food and Agricultural Sciences, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2460, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Abdulaziz G. Alghamdi: Department of Soil Sciences, College of Food and Agricultural Sciences, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2460, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Anwar A. Aly: Soil and Water Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Alexandria University, Alexandria 21545, Egypt

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-26

Abstract: Due to growing water demands and changing hydro-meteorological variables brought on by climate change, drought is becoming an increasingly serious climate concern. The Al-Baha region of Saudi Arabia is the subject of this study because it is susceptible to both agricultural and meteorological droughts. This study investigates how climate change affects patterns of drought in Al-Baha by analyzing four drought indices (Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Rainfall Deficiency Index (RDI), and the Effective Reconnaissance Drought Index (eRDI)) for the years 1991–2022. Analysis of rainfall data was carried out to classify drought events according to their duration, frequency, and severity. Results showed that severe droughts occurred in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, and 2022, with 2010 being the worst year. Results also indicated a notable decrease in precipitation, which has resulted in extended dry spells. Several indices indicate that this tendency has significant ramifications for agriculture, particularly in areas where farming is a major economic activity. In addition, the possible occurrence of hydrological drought was also observed based on the negative values for the Reservoir Storage Index (RSI) in Al-Baha. Projections for the future under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) showed notable variations in temperature and precipitation. Both the RCP4.5 (low emission) and the RCP8.5 (high emission) projection scenarios indicate that drought conditions will likely worsen further. Depending on the emission scenario, it is projected to show a temperature increase of 1–2 °C, whereas the variability in precipitation projections indicates significant uncertainty, with a reduction change in the range of 1.2–27% between 2050 and 2100. The findings highlight the urgent need for proactive adaptation strategies, effective water resource management, and the development of sophisticated drought prediction tools. Addressing these challenges is crucial for sustaining agriculture and managing water scarcity in Saudi Arabia in the face of increasing drought risk.

Keywords: climate change; drought indices; temperature increase; rainfall variability; water scarcity; future projections; drought management; Al-Baha; arid regions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/22/9882/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/22/9882/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:22:p:9882-:d:1519633

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().