Assessing Compound Coastal–Fluvial Flood Impacts and Resilience Under Extreme Scenarios in Demak, Indonesia

Asrini Chrysanti (), Ariz Adhani, Ismail Naufal Azkiarizqi, Mohammad Bagus Adityawan, Muhammad Syahril Badri Kusuma and Muhammad Cahyono
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Asrini Chrysanti: Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbukgu, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea
Ariz Adhani: Department of Water Resources Management and Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia
Ismail Naufal Azkiarizqi: Department of Water Resources Management and Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia
Mohammad Bagus Adityawan: Department of Water Resources Management and Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Sumedang 45363, Indonesia
Muhammad Syahril Badri Kusuma: Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
Muhammad Cahyono: Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Sciences, Ibnu Khaldun Bogor University, Jl. Sholeh Iskandar Km. 2, Kota Bogor 16162, Indonesia

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 23, 1-22

Abstract: Demak is highly vulnerable to flooding from both fluvial and coastal storms, facing increasing pressures on its sustainability and resilience due to multiple compounding flood hazards. This study assesses the inundation hazards in Demak coastal areas by modeling the impacts of compound flooding. We modeled eight scenarios incorporating long-term forces, such as sea level rise (SLR) and land subsidence (LS), as well as immediate forces, like storm surges, wind waves, and river discharge. Our findings reveal that immediate forces primarily increase inundation depth, while long-term forces expand the inundation area. Combined effects from storm tides and other factors resulted in a 10–20% increase in flood extent compared to individual forces. Fluvial flooding mostly impacts areas near river outlets, but the combination of river discharge and storm tides produces flood extents similar to those caused by SLR. Land subsidence emerged as the primary driver of coastal flooding, while other factors, adding just 25% to area increase, significantly impacted inundation depth. These findings underscore the effectiveness of mangroves in mitigating floods in low-lying areas against immediate forces. However, the resilience and sustainability of the Demak region are challenged by SLR, LS, and the need to integrate these factors into a comprehensive flood mitigation strategy.

Keywords: sea level rise; storm surge; storm tide; land subsidence; sustainability; resilience; mangroves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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