Assessing Drought Risk and the Influence of Climate Projections in Sri Lanka for Sustainable Drought Mitigation via Geospatial Techniques

S. D. Sachini Kaushalya Dissanayake, Yuanshu Jing () and Tharana Inu Laksith
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S. D. Sachini Kaushalya Dissanayake: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Yuanshu Jing: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Tharana Inu Laksith: Post Graduate Institute of Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya 20400, Sri Lanka

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 23, 1-17

Abstract: Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to climatic change, making drought risk assessment an essential tool for the development of effective mitigation strategies. This study addresses existing gaps by employing geospatial techniques to evaluate drought risk in Sri Lanka and focusing on future trends in temperature and precipitation. The observed meteorological data, projected climate variables, and environmental factors were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Key findings show that the northwestern and southern regions of Sri Lanka are particularly susceptible to increased drought hazards, while the southwestern region, characterized by the highest density of built-up areas, is also more vulnerable. A combination of hazard and vulnerability data reveals that the northwestern, upper–central, and southern regions exhibit relatively high drought risk. The spatial distributions of the predicted meteorological variables align closely with current patterns, and significant increasing trends were observed under the SSP 2.6 and SSP 8.5 scenarios. Precipitation and temperature correlate with drought, indicating an elevated risk of future drought events. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between climate change and drought risk in Sri Lanka, offering valuable insights for policymakers and resource managers to develop sustainable drought mitigation plans.

Keywords: drought; sustainability; meteorological variables; climate projection; GIS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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