Residential Load Forecasting Based on Long Short-Term Memory, Considering Temporal Local Attention

Wenzhi Cao, Houdun Liu, Xiangzhi Zhang and Yangyan Zeng ()
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Wenzhi Cao: School of Frontier Crossover Studies, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China
Houdun Liu: School of Frontier Crossover Studies, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China
Xiangzhi Zhang: School of Frontier Crossover Studies, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China
Yangyan Zeng: School of Frontier Crossover Studies, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-16

Abstract: Accurate residential load forecasting is crucial for the stable operation of the energy internet, which plays a significant role in advancing sustainable development. As the construction of the energy internet progresses, the proportion of residential electricity consumption in end-use energy consumption is increasing, the peak load on the grid is growing year on year, and seasonal and regional peak power supply tensions, mainly for household electricity consumption, grow into common problems across countries. Residential load forecasting can assist utility companies in determining effective electricity pricing structures and demand response operations, thereby improving renewable energy utilization efficiency and reducing the share of thermal power generation. However, due to the randomness and uncertainty of user load data, forecasting residential load remains challenging. According to prior research, the accuracy of residential load forecasting using machine learning and deep learning methods still has room for improvement. This paper proposes an improved load-forecasting model based on a time-localized attention (TLA) mechanism integrated with LSTM, named TLA-LSTM. The model is composed of a full-text regression network, a date-attention network, and a time-point attention network. The full-text regression network consists of a traditional LSTM, while the date-attention and time-point attention networks are based on a local attention model constructed with CNN and LSTM. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that compared to standard LSTM models, the proposed method improves R 2 by 14.2%, reduces MSE by 15.2%, and decreases RMSE by 8.5%. These enhancements demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the TLA-LSTM model in load forecasting tasks, effectively addressing the limitations of traditional LSTM models in focusing on specific dates and time-points in user load data.

Keywords: residential load forecasting; electric power system; attention mechanism; LSTM; CNN (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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