Increasing Socioeconomic Exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events Under a Warming Climate in the Yangtze River Basin

Jiexiang Zhang, Xuejun Zhang (), Juan Lyu (), Yanping Qu and Guoyong Leng
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Jiexiang Zhang: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Xuejun Zhang: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Juan Lyu: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yanping Qu: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Guoyong Leng: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-18

Abstract: Investigating changes in compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) and evaluating the associated socioeconomic exposure under climate change are critical for developing effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, the socioeconomic exposure and the contributions of various driving factors to socioeconomic exposure under different warming levels remain poorly understood. Using the latest climate experiments from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study assessed future changes in the frequency and socioeconomic exposure of CDHEs and explored the contributing drivers in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C global warming scenarios. Results indicate that the occurrences of CDHEs are projected to increase by 2.9, 3.9, and 4.8 times in a 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C warmer world, respectively, compared to the present period (1985–2014). Population exposure to CDHEs increases significantly, with the greatest magnitude occurring at the 2 °C warming scenario. GDP exposure is expected to intensify continuously as the global average temperature rises, with the area experiencing significant increases continuously expanding. Climate change is the dominant driver of total projected changes in population exposure to CDHEs, accounting for approximately 105.6% at 1.5 °C, 110.3% at 2.0 °C, and 141.0% at 3.0 °C. At 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C warming levels, changes in GDP exposure are primarily driven by the synergistic interaction between climate and GDP, accounting for 50.7%, 62.0%, and 64.8%, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Keywords: climate change; Yangtze River; CDHEs; population exposure; GDP exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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