Coupled Impacts of Soil Acidification and Climate Change on Future Crop Suitability in Ethiopia

Tamirat B. Jimma (), Abel Chemura, Charles Spillane, Teferi Demissie, Wuletawu Abera, Kassahun Ture, Tadesse Terefe, Dawit Solomon and Stephanie Gleixner
Additional contact information
Tamirat B. Jimma: Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University, King George VI St., Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Abel Chemura: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Charles Spillane: Agriculture & Bioeconomy Research Centre, Ryan Institute, University of Galway, University Road, H91 REW4 Galway, Ireland
Teferi Demissie: ILRI, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
Wuletawu Abera: Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Accra PMB LG 56, Ghana
Kassahun Ture: Center for Environmental Science, Addis Ababa University, King George VI St., Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Tadesse Terefe: IGSSA, Addis Ababa University, King George VI St., Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Dawit Solomon: ILRI, Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia
Stephanie Gleixner: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 4, 1-17

Abstract: Agricultural sustainability faces challenges in the changing climate, particularly for rain-fed systems like those in Ethiopia. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and soil acidity on future crop potential, focusing on Ethiopia as a case study. The EcoCrop crop suitability model was parameterized and run for four key food crops in Ethiopia (teff, maize, barley and common wheat), under current and mid-century climate conditions. To assess the impacts of soil acidification on crop suitability, a simulation study was conducted by lowering the soil pH values by 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 and re-running the suitability model, comparing the changes in the area suitable for each crop. Our evaluation of the model, by comparing the modeled suitable areas with reference data, indicated that there was a good fit for all the four crops. Using default soil pH values, we project that there will be no significant changes in the suitability of maize, barley and wheat and an increase in the suitability of teff by the mid-century, as influenced by projected increases in rainfall in the country. Our results demonstrate a direct relationship between the lowering of soil pH and increasing losses in the area suitable for all crops, but especially for teff, barley and wheat. We conclude that soil acidification can have a strong impact on crop suitability in Ethiopia under climate change, and precautionary measures to avoid soil acidification should be a key element in the design of climate change adaptation strategies.

Keywords: soil pH; agriculture; climate adaptation; soil quality; EcoCrop; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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