Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling

Tomás Calheiros (), Pedro Beça, Tiago Capela Lourenço, Lukas Eggler, Margarita Mediavilla, Noelia Ferreras-Alonso, Iván Ramos-Diez, Roger Samsó, Tiziano Distefano and Amandine Pastor
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Tomás Calheiros: cE3c—Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon (FCUL/U Lisboa), 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Pedro Beça: cE3c—Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon (FCUL/U Lisboa), 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Tiago Capela Lourenço: cE3c—Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon (FCUL/U Lisboa), 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Lukas Eggler: Austrian Energy Agency, 1150 Vienna, Austria
Margarita Mediavilla: Group of Energy, Economy and Systems Dynamics (GEEDS), University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain
Noelia Ferreras-Alonso: Group of Energy, Economy and Systems Dynamics (GEEDS), University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain
Iván Ramos-Diez: Centro Tecnológico CARTIF, Parque Tecnológico de Boecillo, 47151 Boecillo, Spain
Roger Samsó: Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Campus UAB, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
Tiziano Distefano: Department of Economics and Energy, University of Florence, 50144 Florence, Italy
Amandine Pastor: French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE), 34000 Montpellier, France

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 4, 1-15

Abstract: The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.

Keywords: hydropower potential; IAM (Integrated Assessment Models); SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways); renewable energy; climate change impacts; mitigation and adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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