Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Changes in Gannan, China

Xin Luo, Yongzhong Luo (), Fangjun Le, Yishan Zhang, Han Zhang and Jiaqi Zhai
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Xin Luo: College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Yongzhong Luo: College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Fangjun Le: College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Yishan Zhang: College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Han Zhang: College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Jiaqi Zhai: College of Forestry, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 4, 1-22

Abstract: For the preservation of ecosystems, including the enhancement of ecological strategies, examining the temporal and geographical variance in ecosystem services (ESs) and land use/land cover change (LUCC) is crucial. Gannan is situated on the upper Yellow River, which is a notable water conservation region with excellent ecological quality, but in the background of the local traditional production mode and rapid economic development, natural disasters, grassland degradation, and other ecological problems occur frequently. The integrated valuing of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model are combined in this work to assess the spatiotemporal variance in ESs in Gannan. We set up three scenarios in modeling future land use—ecological protection (EP), natural development (ND), and economic development (ED) in 2050—and analyzed and evaluated the drivers of the variation in ESs. In order to reveal the LUCC in Gannan between 1990 and 2020, we predicted the LUCC and ESs spatial distribution characteristics in 2050, explored the correlation between its driving factors, and comprehensively analyzed and propose optimization measures and protection strategies. Through several simulation experiments, the findings indicate the following: (1) the largest percentage of land expansion for construction in Gannan between 1990 and 2020 is 74.53%, and the most noticeable percentage of shrinkage in the sand area is 20.67%; (2) from 1990 to 2020, Gannan’s water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality all changed, by 60 × 10 8 m 3 , 0.04 × 10 8 t, −10.66 × 10 8 t, and −0.02, respectively; (3) ESs are influenced by a variety of natural and societal variables: the southern and southwestern regions of Gannan are home to the majority of ESs hot spot areas, while the northern region is home to the majority of cold spot areas. This study contributes to the analysis of the developmental traits of Gannan ecosystems and can serve as a model for the preservation of terrestrial ecosystems with comparable environmental traits.

Keywords: land use/cover change; ecosystem services; spatial and temporal patterns; PLUS model; InVEST model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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