Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Mo Wang (), Zijing Chen, Dongqing Zhang (), Ming Liu, Haojun Yuan, Biyi Chen, Qiuyi Rao, Shiqi Zhou, Yuankai Wang, Jianjun Li, Chengliang Fan and Soon Keat Tan
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Mo Wang: College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Zijing Chen: College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Dongqing Zhang: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Petrochemical Pollution Processes and Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming 525000, China
Ming Liu: State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science, School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China
Haojun Yuan: College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Biyi Chen: Architectural Design and Research Institute, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510405, China
Qiuyi Rao: Architectural Design and Research Institute, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510405, China
Shiqi Zhou: College of Design and Innovation, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
Yuankai Wang: Bartlett School of Architecture, University College London, London WC1N 1EH, UK
Jianjun Li: College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Chengliang Fan: College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Soon Keat Tan: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 5, 1-17

Abstract: Concurrent meteorological extremes (CMEs) represent a class of pernicious climatic events characterized by the coexistence of two extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, the juxtaposition of Urban Extreme Rainfall (UER) and Urban Extreme Heat (UEH) can precipitate disproportionately deleterious impacts on both ecological systems and human well-being. In this investigation, we embarked on a meticulous risk appraisal of CMEs within China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA), harnessing the predictive capabilities of three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, in conjunction with the EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model from the CMIP6 suite. The findings evidence a pronounced augmentation in CME occurrences, most notably under the SSP1-2.6 trajectory. Intriguingly, the SSP5-8.5 pathway, typified by elevated levels of greenhouse gas effluents, prognosticated the most intense CMEs, albeit with a temperate surge upon occurrence. Additionally, an ascendant trend in the ratio of CMEs to the aggregate of UER and UEH portends an escalating susceptibility to these combined events in ensuing decades. A sensitivity analysis accentuated the pivotal interplay between UER and UEH as a catalyst for the proliferation of CMEs, modulated by alterations in their respective marginal distributions. Such revelations accentuate the imperative of assimilating intricate interdependencies among climatic anomalies into evaluative paradigms for devising efficacious climate change countermeasures. The risk assessment paradigm proffered herein furnishes a formidable instrument for gauging the calamitous potential of CMEs in a dynamically shifting climate, thereby refining the precision of prospective risk estimations.

Keywords: urban extreme heat; urban extreme rainfall; concurrent meteorological extremes; climate change; shared socioeconomic pathway (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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