Analyzing the Impact of Road Accidents on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Freeway Traffic: A Simulation and Statistical Modeling Approach

Yushan Wang, Chenjie Lv, Qin Nie and Haobing Liu ()
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Yushan Wang: School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, 22 Shaoshan South Rd., Changsha 410075, China
Chenjie Lv: The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Rd., Shanghai 201804, China
Qin Nie: Urban Mobility Institute & The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Caoan Road, Shanghai 201804, China
Haobing Liu: The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Rd., Shanghai 201804, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: Roadway accidents significantly contribute to intermittent congestion and increased CO 2 emissions on freeways. This research introduces a statistical approach designed to predict the rise in CO 2 emissions resulting from traffic disturbances or jams triggered by such incidents. It also assesses the influence of varying levels of accident management effectiveness in different situations. To construct these scenarios, the study employs VISSIM, a traffic modeling software, incorporating diverse factors such as traffic volume, vehicle types, incident durations, and freeway lane counts. It then produces traffic flow characteristics in the form of vehicle paths. The emission estimates are derived by correlating these simulated vehicle paths with emission rates from the MOVES model. The study then applies a regression analysis to examine the connection between the increase in emissions and various influencing factors. The findings indicate that this approach efficiently reflects the impact of variables like accident duration, vehicle mix, and traffic volume on CO 2 emissions across different lane configurations. The accuracy of these predictions is also confirmed. The outcomes suggest the model’s potential usage in guiding efforts to lower emissions and determining the optimal duration of incident management, particularly in terms of lane closure, to mitigate emission impacts. This paper also discusses the limitations of the model and the future improvement direction.

Keywords: freeways; CO 2 emission; accident management measures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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