Exploring the Influences of Safety and Energy Expenditure Parameters on Cycling

Giuseppe Cappelli, Mauro D’Apuzzo (), Sofia Nardoianni and Vittorio Nicolosi
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Giuseppe Cappelli: Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via G. Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, Italy
Mauro D’Apuzzo: Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via G. Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, Italy
Sofia Nardoianni: Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via G. Di Biasio 43, 03043 Cassino, Italy
Vittorio Nicolosi: Department of Enterprise Engineering Mario Lucertini, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 7, 1-22

Abstract: Several determinants affect the reason to cycle or not, and some of them are described in a detailed way in the current technical literature review. The recent spread of new modes of active mobility brings up questions for urban transport planners on how to foresee future demand and assess safety conditions; from this comes the need to explore the relationships among several determinants. In this paper, after the collection of the main data required, three Regression Models are proposed, which demonstrate evidence for the role of safety and energy expenditure issues as important predictors. The method is applied to a dataset of 90 Italian cities selected according to their class of dimensionality and geographical position. The three models for each class of dimensionality (50,000–100,000 no. of inhabitants, 10,000–50,000 no. of inhabitants, and 0–10,000 no. of inhabitants) show a good accuracy (in terms of adj-R 2 values of 0.6991, 0.7111, and 0.6619, respectively). The results show that energy expenditure, which is related to the terrain characteristics of an urban area and individual aerobic abilities, and safety perception, which is related to cycle network extensions, appear to be significant determinants in predicting bicycle modal share. The aim is to provide a useful and simplified tool, when only aggregated-type data are available, to help urban road designers and city planners in identifying and forecasting bike-sharing.

Keywords: sustainable mobility; modal split; energy expenditure parameters; safety; e-bike; c-bike; cycling models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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