Economic Structural Adjustment Promoting Sustainable Growth in Shanghai: A Two-Decade Study (2004–2023)

Danjun Wang, Yunqi Zhou and Fengwei Wang ()
Additional contact information
Danjun Wang: School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China
Yunqi Zhou: School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
Fengwei Wang: College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: This study investigates the structural transformation of Shanghai’s economy (2004–2023), analyzing the interplay between industrial shifts and sustainable growth. While prior work has focused on short-term trends or isolated sectors, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of Shanghai’s two-decade transition from manufacturing to services, leveraging annual nominal GDP data and three forecasting models (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model ARIMA, Support Vector Machine SVM, and Grey Model GM). Our findings reveal that the tertiary sector’s contribution surged from 50.8% to 75.2% of GDP, driven by finance, technology, and real estate, while the secondary sector declined to 24.6%. The autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA(1,1) model outperformed alternatives (mean absolute percentage error 2.97%), projecting GDP growth to CNY 60,321.54 trillion by 2026. Crucially, we demonstrate that Shanghai’s structural evolution aligns with advanced urban economies (e.g., New York, Tokyo), yet retains distinct industrial resilience due to China’s dual-circulation policy. These results challenge assumptions about manufacturing decline, instead highlighting a rebalancing toward high-value-added sectors. The study contributes (1) a validated framework for forecasting urban GDP in policy-stabilized economies and (2) empirical evidence for prioritizing tertiary innovation in sustainable development strategies. Policymakers and researchers can leverage these insights to navigate trade-offs between growth, equity, and environmental goals in rapidly urbanizing regions.

Keywords: economic growth; industrial structure; Shanghai; forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/10/4318/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/10/4318/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:10:p:4318-:d:1652631

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().