A Unified Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Framework for Estimating Lake Reference Nutrient Conditions with Confidence Intervals: A Case Study of Hongze Lake, China

Anan Wang, Haomiao Cheng (), Wei Jiang, Wei Ma, Fukang Yang, Lihua Zhang, Xiaohong Jiang and Liang Wang
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Anan Wang: School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China
Haomiao Cheng: School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China
Wei Jiang: Jiangsu Rural Water Conservancy Science and Technology Development Center, Nanjing 210029, China
Wei Ma: Huaihe River Basin Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Scientific Research Center of Huaihe River Basin Ecological Environmental Supervision and Administration Bureau, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of People’s Republic of China (MEE), Bengbu 233000, China
Fukang Yang: School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China
Lihua Zhang: School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China
Xiaohong Jiang: School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China
Liang Wang: School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 10, 1-15

Abstract: The scientific determination of reference conditions for lake nutrients is fundamental for establishing ecologically sustainable nutrient criteria. This study developed a novel method for determining lake reference nutrient conditions based on generalized extreme value distribution theory. The method establishes a unified framework by integrating Weibull, Gumbel, and Fréchet distributions. It was applied to estimate the reference nutrient conditions in Hongze Lake, the fourth-largest freshwater lake in China. The results indicated that the extreme value sequences of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) followed the generalized extreme value distribution, thereby confirming the method’s feasibility. The recommended reference conditions for TN and TP in Hongze Lake were 0.65 mg/L and 0.031 mg/L, respectively, with 95% confidence intervals of 0.56–0.74 mg/L for TN and 0.026–0.035 mg/L for TP. The proposed method could avoid the artificial errors associated with data grouping in descriptive statistical methods and assist in formulating adaptive water management strategies by providing confidence intervals for reference nutrient concentrations. The spatial distribution of the reference TN and TP concentrations across various watersheds in China revealed that the eastern watersheds exhibited higher reference concentrations of TN and TP compared to the western watersheds. This study provides valuable insights for developing nutrient criteria for lakes, contributing to the sustainable management of water quality in regional lake ecosystems.

Keywords: reference condition; generalized extreme value; nutrient; water management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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