The Analysis of Goals, Results, and Trends in Global Climate Policy Through the Lens of Regulatory Documents and Macroeconomics

Pavel Tsvetkov () and Amina Andreichyk
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Pavel Tsvetkov: Department of Organization and Management, Faculty of Economics, Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg 199106, Russia
Amina Andreichyk: Department of Organization and Management, Faculty of Economics, Saint Petersburg Mining University, Saint Petersburg 199106, Russia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 10, 1-37

Abstract: The issue of improving the effectiveness of international climate policy, one of the main goals of which is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, poses a critical and acute challenge for the global economic system. At every COP conference and in every IPCC report, it is evident that current measures fall short. To address this gap, this study examines the structure and trends of global climate policy development through content analysis, PRISMA methodology, and correlation and regression analysis using censored Bayesian Tobit regression. The obtained results are supplemented with the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) decomposition of the Kaya identity. The research covers 198 countries and 4241 documents spanning 1950 to 2023 that shape global climate policy. The results showed that (1) the success of climate goals varies depending on policy instruments, institutional conditions, and the time frame of analysis; (2) the greatest success in achieving climate targets was often observed in countries that adopted moderate, realistic, and institutionally supported targets; (3) in some cases, an overachievement of targets and GHG emissions reduction was a temporal observation or the result of economic decline; (4) in countries without officially declared targets, emissions also continued under similar growth trends, calling into question the effectiveness of current methods of setting up CO 2 emissions reduction targets. These findings provide a deeper understanding of the factors determining the effectiveness of climate policy. They highlight key barriers to achieving too ambitious emission reduction targets, which can lead to economic shocks and a subsequent increase in environmental impact. Ultimately, this research can contribute to the development of more realistic and effective decarbonization strategies.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions; climate policy; decarbonization; macroeconomics; energy efficiency; renewable energy; climate change; Paris Agreement; Kyoto Protocol; net zero (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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