Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Spatial Spillover Effects of Carbon Emissions in China’s Livestock Economic System

Jing Zhou (), Chao Chen, Lingling Wu and Huajiang Wang
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Jing Zhou: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Yibin 643000, China
Chao Chen: School of Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Yibin 643000, China
Lingling Wu: School of Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Yibin 643000, China
Huajiang Wang: School of Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Yibin 643000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 10, 1-24

Abstract: This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics, regional disparities, and spatial spillover effects of carbon emissions in China’s livestock sector from 2003 to 2022. By integrating carbon accounting, decoupling elasticity analysis, kernel density estimation, Theil index decomposition, and the Spatial Durbin Model, the research revealed a 6.5% reduction in national livestock carbon emissions alongside intensified spatial polarization. The decoupling relationship evolved dynamically, with strong decoupling dominating but regional fluctuations persisting, particularly in resource-dependent areas. The distribution of emission intensity shifted from unimodal right-skewness to bimodal concentration, indicating technological diffusion barriers and structural divergence across regions. Spatial econometric analysis confirmed significant emission interdependence (ρ = 0.214, p < 0.01), where neighboring economic growth increased local emission intensity. These findings highlighted the limitations of uniform policy approaches and emphasized the need for region-specific governance, market-based incentives, and localized technological innovation. The study provided empirical evidence and a policy framework to address cross-regional coordination and sustainable low-carbon transitions in agriculture.

Keywords: livestock carbon emissions; decoupling elasticity; kernel density estimation; Spatial Durbin Model; regional disparity; low-carbon policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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