Research on the Interlinked Mechanism of Agricultural System Risks from an Industry Perspective

Shiyi Yuan (), Miao Yang, Baohua Liu () and Ganqiong Li
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Shiyi Yuan: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Miao Yang: School of Business, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China
Baohua Liu: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Ganqiong Li: Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: Studying the risk propagation mechanisms in agricultural systems is crucial for maintaining agricultural stability and promoting sustainable development. This research analyzes the risk effects and risk propagation mechanisms in agricultural systems using the DCC-t-Copula-CoVaR model, multi-layer network structures, and the mixed-frequency regression MIDAS model. The study finds that there is significant heterogeneity in risk spillover and absorption in agricultural systems; the risk propagation in agricultural systems is stable, and the stronger the connectivity of industry nodes, the greater the risk. Taking the seed industry as an example, its structural indicator values consistently range between 1.0 and 1.1, with fluctuations closely linked to industry development and policy adjustments. Major risks are caused by risk resonance across multiple industries, not triggered by a single industry alone; the interconnections between industries within the agricultural system can disperse risks, forming a collective risk-sharing mechanism. Understanding these dynamics is essential for developing resilient agricultural practices that support long-term sustainability, ensuring food security, and mitigating environmental impacts. By addressing risk propagation and fostering interconnected risk-sharing mechanisms, agricultural systems can better adapt to challenges such as climate change, resource scarcity, and market volatility, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable and stable global food system.

Keywords: agricultural systems; complex networks; industry perspective; key nodes; mechanisms of action (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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