Forecasting Vineyard Water Needs in Southern Poland Under Climate Change Scenarios

Stanisław Rolbiecki (), Barbara Jagosz (), Wiesława Kasperska-Wołowicz, Roman Rolbiecki and Tymoteusz Bolewski
Additional contact information
Stanisław Rolbiecki: Department of Biogeochemistry, Soil Science, Irrigation and Drainage, Bydgoszcz University of Science and Technology, 85-029 Bydgoszcz, Poland
Barbara Jagosz: Department of Plant Biology and Biotechnology, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
Wiesława Kasperska-Wołowicz: Institute of Technology and Life Sciences—National Research Institute, Falenty, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland
Roman Rolbiecki: Department of Biogeochemistry, Soil Science, Irrigation and Drainage, Bydgoszcz University of Science and Technology, 85-029 Bydgoszcz, Poland
Tymoteusz Bolewski: Institute of Technology and Life Sciences—National Research Institute, Falenty, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-20

Abstract: Climate change requires efficient water resource management, especially in regions where viticulture is developing. This study evaluates the water requirements, precipitation deficits, and irrigation needs of vineyards in two locations in southern Poland. The analysis covers both a reference period (1931–2020) and a forecast period (2030–2100), based on two climate change scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Grapevine water requirements were estimated using a crop coefficient tailored to Poland’s agroclimatic conditions, combined with meteorological data on air temperature and precipitation. Monthly crop coefficient values were calculated as the ratio of grapevine potential evapotranspiration, estimated using the Penman–Monteith method, to reference evapotranspiration, calculated using the Treder approach for the period 1981–2010. Precipitation deficits were assessed for normal, medium dry, and very dry years using the Ostromęcki method. Irrigation water demand was estimated for light, medium, and heavy soils using the Pittenger method. The results indicate a significant increase in both water demand and precipitation deficits in the forecast period, regardless of the scenario. In very dry years, irrigation will be necessary for all soil types. In medium dry years, water deficits will primarily affect vineyards on light soils. These findings underscore the urgent need for improvements in irrigation planning, especially in areas with low soil water. They offer practical insights for estimating future water storage needs and implementing precision irrigation adapted to changing climate conditions. Adopting such adaptive strategies is essential for sustaining vineyard productivity and improving water use efficiency. This study also supports the integration of climate projections into regional planning and calls for investment in innovative, water-saving technologies to strengthen the long-term resilience of Poland’s wine industry.

Keywords: evapotranspiration; global warming; soil drought; vine; Vitis vinifera L.; water deficit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/11/4766/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/11/4766/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:11:p:4766-:d:1661961

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().