Calculation of Overtopping Risk Probability and Assessment of Risk Consequences of Cascade Reservoirs

Meirong Jia, Xin Lu, Xiangyi Ding (), Junying Chu, Xinyi Ma and Xiaojie Tang
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Meirong Jia: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Xin Lu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Xiangyi Ding: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Junying Chu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Xinyi Ma: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Xiaojie Tang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-20

Abstract: In the case of extreme disasters such as local rainstorm and excessive flood, the safety risk analysis and prevention and control of cascade reservoirs face new challenges. Therefore, this article conducted a risk analysis based on typical watersheds and proposed a method for calculating the risk rate of overtopping in cascade reservoir groups, dynamically simulated the evolution process of overtopping floods in cascade reservoirs under different scenarios, delineated the scope of flood inundation, and evaluated the risk of overtopping of cascade reservoirs under different scenarios. Research has shown that dam failure floods in cascade reservoirs have both cumulative and cumulative effects, with scenario 3 being the most unfavorable. In scenario 3, the peak flow rates at the dam sites of each reservoir reached 24,500, 19,200, and 20,100 m 3 /s. According to the comprehensive risk assessment criteria, scenarios 1 and 2 are classified as moderate risks, while scenario 3 is classified as mild risk. Research has found that although the probability of dam overflow is extremely low, the high vulnerability calculated for each scenario indicates that a breach will cause significant social losses. This study can provide reference for the risk assessment of overtopping in cascade reservoirs and flood control and disaster reduction.

Keywords: Monte Carlo; HEC-RAS; overtopping probability; risk consequences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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