Glacier Retreat and Groundwater Recharge in Central Chile: Analysis to Inform Decision-Making for Sustainable Water Resources Management

Verónica Urbina, Roberto Pizarro, Solange Jara, Paulina López, Alfredo Ibáñez, Claudia Sangüesa, Cristóbal Toledo, Madeleine Guillen, Héctor L. Venegas-Quiñones, Francisco Alejo, John E. McCray and Pablo A. Garcia-Chevesich ()
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Verónica Urbina: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Roberto Pizarro: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Solange Jara: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Paulina López: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Alfredo Ibáñez: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Claudia Sangüesa: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Cristóbal Toledo: UNESCO Chair on Surface Hydrology, University of Talca, Lircay s/n, Talca 3460000, Chile
Madeleine Guillen: Faculty of Geology, Geophysic and Mines, National University of Saint Agustin, Santa Catalina 117, Arequipa 04000, Peru
Héctor L. Venegas-Quiñones: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401, USA
Francisco Alejo: Faculty of Chemistry, National University of Saint Agustin, Santa Catalina 117, Arequipa 04000, Peru
John E. McCray: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401, USA
Pablo A. Garcia-Chevesich: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80401, USA

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-13

Abstract: Glaciers worldwide are in retreat, and their meltwater can modulate mountain aquifers. We examined whether mass loss of the Juncal Norte Glacier (central Chile) has affected groundwater storage in the Juncal River basin between 1990 and 2022. Recession-curve modeling of daily streamflow shows no statistically significant trend in basin-scale groundwater reserves (τ = 0.06, p > 0.05). In contrast, glacier volume declined significantly (−3.8 hm 3 /yr, p < 0.05), and precipitation at the nearby Riecillos station fell sharply during the 2008–2017 megadrought ( p < 0.05) but exhibited no significant change beforehand. Given the simultaneous decreases in meteoric inputs (rain + snow) and glacier mass, one would expect groundwater storage to decline; its observed stability therefore suggests that enhanced glacier-melt recharge may be temporarily offsetting drier conditions. Isotopic evidence from comparable Andean catchments supports such glacio-groundwater coupling, although time lags of months to years complicate detection with recession models alone. Hence, while our results do not yet demonstrate a direct glacier–groundwater link, they are consistent with the hypothesis that ongoing ice loss is buffering aquifer storage. Longer records and tracer studies are required to verify this mechanism and to inform sustainable water resources planning.

Keywords: watershed hydrology; recessive flows; Juncal Norte Glacier; Valparaíso Region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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