An Improved Grey Prediction Model Integrating Periodic Decomposition and Aggregation for Renewable Energy Forecasting: Case Studies of Solar and Wind Power

Minghao Ran, Yingchao Wang (), Qilu Qin, Jindi Huang and Jiading Jiang
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Minghao Ran: School of Energy Engineering, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi 830023, China
Yingchao Wang: School of Energy Engineering, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi 830023, China
Qilu Qin: School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China
Jindi Huang: School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China
Jiading Jiang: School of Energy Engineering, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi 830023, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-31

Abstract: Due to the prevalent “small data”, “seasonal”, and “periodicity” characteristics in China’s renewable energy power generation data, there are certain difficulties in long-term power generation prediction. For this reason, this paper uses the data preprocessing method of periodical aggregation to enhance the “quasi-exponentiality” characteristics of original data, eliminate “seasonality” and “periodicity”, use the DGM (1,1) model to predict aggregated data, and then use the periodical component factor to reduce the DGM (1,1)-predicted data. A seasonal discrete grey prediction model based on periodical aggregation is constructed. The proposed methodology employs streamlined data preprocessing coupled with conventional grey prediction modeling to enable the precise forecasting of nonlinear periodic sequences. This approach demonstrates an enhanced operational efficiency by mitigating the structural complexity and implementation barriers inherent in classical seasonal grey prediction frameworks. Validation experiments conducted on China’s photovoltaic (PV) and wind power generation datasets through comparative multi-model analysis confirm the model’s superior predictive accuracy, with performance metrics significantly outperforming benchmark methods across both training and validation cohorts.

Keywords: periodical aggregation; data preprocessing; grey prediction; periodical seasonality; renewable energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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