Impact of Zero-Waste City Pilot Policies on Urban Energy Consumption Intensity: Causal Inference Based on Double Machine Learning

Bingnan Guo, Yuren Qian, Xinyan Guo () and Hao Zhang
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Bingnan Guo: School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212000, China
Yuren Qian: School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212000, China
Xinyan Guo: School of Economics and Management, Gannan University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
Hao Zhang: School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 11, 1-25

Abstract: To scientifically assess the energy-saving effects of China’s zero-waste city pilot (ZWCP) policies and provide empirical evidence and policy insights for advancing pilot policies and accelerating energy conservation and emission reduction goals, this study selected 274 cities in China from 2010 to 2022 as the research sample, employing a double machine learning model to empirically analyze the impact of pilot policies on urban energy consumption intensity. The research results demonstrate that the ZWCP policies significantly reduced energy consumption intensity in pilot areas. Channel analysis reveals that this policy exerted a restraining effect on energy consumption intensity through industrial structure upgrading, green technology innovation, and enhanced environmental awareness. Heterogeneity analysis shows that policy effects were more pronounced in non-urban agglomeration regions, inland areas, and small-to-medium-sized cities. This study provides crucial decision-making references for the promotion and implementation of ZWCP policies during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.

Keywords: zero-waste city pilot policies; energy consumption intensity; double machine learning; industrial structure; green innovation; environmental awareness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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